NEW DELHI: Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 27, five days earlier than its normal onset date of June 1, the IMD said on Saturday. Early onset makes it possible to begin Kharif (summer sown) crops sowing operation early and the forecast helps farmers to prepare themselves for the same.
The advance of monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.
The southwest (summer) monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days and covers the entire country by July 8.
“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala to be on May 27 with a model error of ± 4 days,” said the Met department which uses six predictors in the models to make the onset forecast.
IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose.
Past data shows that the IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were proved to be correct except in 2015 when the actual onset (June 5) crossed the model error limit of +/- 4 days from the forecast date (May 30).
The Met department uses an indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days for making the forecast.
Six predictors used by it in the models include minimum temperatures over north-west India; pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; mean sea level pressure over sub-tropical NW Pacific Ocean; outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea; lower tropospheric zonal wind over northeast Indian Ocean; and upper tropospheric zonal wind over Indonesia region.
IMD last month predicted ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole this year during the upcoming rainy season (June-September).
The advance of monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.
The southwest (summer) monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days and covers the entire country by July 8.
“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala to be on May 27 with a model error of ± 4 days,” said the Met department which uses six predictors in the models to make the onset forecast.
IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose.
Past data shows that the IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were proved to be correct except in 2015 when the actual onset (June 5) crossed the model error limit of +/- 4 days from the forecast date (May 30).
The Met department uses an indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days for making the forecast.
Six predictors used by it in the models include minimum temperatures over north-west India; pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; mean sea level pressure over sub-tropical NW Pacific Ocean; outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea; lower tropospheric zonal wind over northeast Indian Ocean; and upper tropospheric zonal wind over Indonesia region.
IMD last month predicted ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole this year during the upcoming rainy season (June-September).
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