US govt shutdown: How long will the deadlock continue; what to expect in the coming days

The United States government entered a shutdown at 12:01 am on Wednesday after Congress failed to reach a spending agreement, triggering widespread disruption across federal agencies. The critical question now is how long the closure will last — and what it means for millions of Americans who depend on government services.

Technically, the shutdown will remain until Congress passes and the president signs appropriation bills. But the White House is signalling a harder line. Budget Director Russell Vought told lawmakers that some agencies could move to terminate workers within one to two days, Bloomberg reported. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added layoffs would happen within “two days, imminent, very soon” but declined to specify which agencies.

Also read: US government shutdown: The impact on America’s workforce - explained in numbers

President Donald Trump suggested his administration intends to capitalise on the shutdown. “A lot of good can come from shutdowns, we can get rid of a lot of things we didn't want, and they'd be Democrat things,” Trump said.

Who is affected

Hundreds of thousands of federal workers are expected to be furloughed, though those providing essential services such as law enforcement and air traffic control will remain on the job without pay until the shutdown ends. AFGE President Everett Kelley urged lawmakers to act swiftly, stressing that “federal employees are not bargaining chips.”

The Congressional Budget Office estimates about 750,000 employees will be furloughed, costing $400 million in lost compensation per day. In the 2018-2019 shutdown, about 300,000 of 800,000 workers were furloughed.

Also read: Major federal offices face disruption – how it will affect millions

What is closed and what stays open

Some key services remain untouched. Social Security and Medicare benefits will continue since they are funded separately by law. Air traffic control, disaster relief and border security operations will also continue, though stretched resources could become strained over time.

Agencies facing immediate disruption include the National Park Service , which may shut parks and monuments as it did in 2013. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the Trump administration kept them open but understaffed, leading to damage, according to the National Parks Conservation Association.



Also read: From banks to courts- What stays open and what closes if Senate fails to pass funding bills

The Department of Homeland Security will furlough nearly 23,000 employees, although border and aviation enforcement will continue. The Defense Department will keep active-duty troops working, but pay could be delayed. At the State Department, embassies and consulates will remain open, with passport and visa services funded by fees, but new grants, travel, and public events will pause.

How long can it last?

Past shutdowns have ranged from a few days to over a month. The longest, under Trump’s first term, stretched 35 days between December 2018 and January 2019, costing an estimated $3 billion in lost GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Economists warn that each week of closure could shave 0.2 percentage points off GDP growth.

“The damage of a shutdown is often more insidious,” Max Stier, president of the Partnership for Public Service, told AFP. “It interrupts the longer-term investments that are necessary to make our government run over time.”

Economists also warn of a “noisier” financial environment without key government data releases, including the monthly jobs report, which was set to be halted if the shutdown continued.

What comes next

Pressure is expected to mount if the shutdown drags on beyond two weeks, the typical US pay cycle, when federal workers begin missing paychecks. Markets may remain stable in the short term, but uncertainty could ripple through the economy if the deadlock continues.

For now, the end of the shutdown depends entirely on a political compromise between Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Until then, millions of Americans will face the impact of stalled services, furloughed workers, and rising economic uncertainty.

(With inputs from Bloomberg and AP)